A new Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey of likely Republican runoff voters in South Dakota shows incumbent Larry Rhoden holding a decisive lead over businessman Toby Doeden as the state prepares for its first-ever gubernatorial runoff.
Big advantage for Rhoden
Rhoden led the head-to-head matchup by 62% to Doeden’s 32% in the July 12-13 survey, with about 7% of respondents undecided. When undecided voters are allocated according to their leanings, Rhoden’s advantage remains around 30 points, at 65% to 35%.
“Larry Rhoden appears to have picked up momentum after finishing behind Doeden in the June primary,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
The poll indicates that Rhoden has consolidated support from voters who backed other candidates in the June primary. In particular, those who supported Rep. Dusty Johnson in the primary report breaking heavily for Rhoden in the runoff.
Where the support is coming from
- Dusty Johnson primary voters: overwhelmingly favor Rhoden over Doeden.
- Rhoden primary voters: near-total retention for the runoff.
- Doeden primary voters: majorities remain loyal but at a lower rate than Rhoden’s retention.
The survey finds Jon Hansen’s backers also tilt toward Rhoden. Across age groups, Rhoden carried a majority, while Doeden’s best showings were among voters in their 40s and 50s, where support reached 44%.
| Candidate | Raw poll | Lean-adjusted |
|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden | 62% | 65% |
| Toby Doeden | 32% | 35% |
| Undecided | 7% | — |
Methodology and limits
The Emerson College Polling/KELOLAND survey contacted a sample of 500 likely Republican runoff voters July 12-13. The poll lists a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points and notes that demographic subgroup findings carry wider credibility intervals because of smaller sample sizes. Data were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration and region, and respondents were recruited from a voter file and a probability-based voter panel using MMS text-to-web methods.
As South Dakota heads into its first gubernatorial runoff, the poll suggests Rhoden has a strong structural advantage, fueled by consolidation of support from other primary camps. With the gap this wide and a month until the runoff, both campaigns will be watching turnout and undecided voters closely.
