The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its fall 2026 seasonal outlook, forecasting a generally cooler and drier autumn for the lower Great Lakes and parts of the Midwest. The projection arrives as federal agencies report a high likelihood that a strengthening El Niño will be in place by late fall and winter.
Almanac forecast and regional expectations
The Almanac’s seasonal guidance calls for temperatures below normal in September for the Chicago area and surrounding lower Great Lakes region, with readings returning toward near average in October. Rainfall for September is expected to be near normal, then trend slightly below average in October, according to the Almanac.
"September will be cooler than average before temperatures return to near average in October. Rainfall is expected to be near average in September, then trend slightly below average in October,"
El Niño context and official outlooks
The Almanac’s seasonal take coincides with updates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Climate Prediction Center showing an increasing probability of a strong El Niño developing this year. The agencies’ most recent assessment assigned an 81% chance that the event will qualify as a "very-strong El Niño," with peak strength expected in the October–November–December timeframe or possibly earlier.
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| El Niño probability | 81% chance of very-strong event |
| Expected peak | Oct–Dec (may be earlier) |
What this could mean for fall and winter
El Niño historically shifts weather patterns: for parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, strong El Niño events tend to favor milder, drier winters. The Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook shows below-average temperatures persisting through September in northern Illinois, with near-equal chances for above- or below-average precipitation in some locations.
- September: Cooler-than-average temperatures expected in parts of the lower Great Lakes.
- October: Temperatures likely near average; precipitation may trend slightly below normal.
- Fall into winter: Strengthening El Niño increases odds of milder, drier conditions in some regions, but impacts are not uniform.
Practical guidance
Long-range outlooks provide a broad probabilistic view rather than deterministic forecasts. Residents and planners should continue to monitor updates from local forecast offices and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for evolving details. Seasonal anomalies can vary significantly by location; even strong El Niño events do not produce the same outcomes everywhere.
For now, the Almanac's outlook and the elevated El Niño probability suggest a tilt toward drier and somewhat milder conditions for parts of the Midwest this fall and into winter, but forecasters advise checking shorter-term forecasts as the season approaches.
